No Babies, No Boom: Why Chinese Families Are Rejecting Government Birth Policies

China’s Population Crisis Deepens 10 Years After the One-Child Policy Ended

Beijing | Chatzyr.net

Ten years after China officially ended its controversial one-child policy, the country is facing a worsening population decline, with fewer young people willing or able to have children despite growing government incentives.

For Welkin Lei, a 30-year-old Beijing resident, the decision to have a second child has become an exercise in careful financial calculation. He and his wife already struggle with childcare costs, work demands, and the looming responsibility of caring for aging parents—a burden common among China’s generation of only children.

“We need much stronger support if the government truly wants families to have more children,” Lei said. “Encouragement alone isn’t enough.”

China’s Birth Rate Continues to Fall Despite Policy Changes

On January 1, China marked a decade since scrapping the one-child policy, a system introduced in 1980 to curb population growth. While the policy succeeded in reducing births, it left behind long-term consequences that now threaten China’s economic future.

Despite introducing a two-child policy in 2016 and later a three-child policy, China’s population has declined for three consecutive years through 2024. A slight rise in births last year failed to offset a growing number of deaths.

According to official data:

China’s total population fell by 1.39 million in 2024

People aged 60 and above now exceed 20% of the population

United Nations projections suggest older adults could make up nearly 50% of China’s population by 2100

Aging Population Poses Economic and Security Risks

China’s leadership has increasingly framed the issue as one of “population security.” President Xi Jinping has called for building a “high-quality population” to safeguard economic growth, domestic consumption, and even military strength.

Unlike Japan or South Korea, China faces the challenge of aging before becoming wealthy, with a weaker social safety net and a shrinking workforce supporting a growing elderly population.

Experts warn the impact on:

Economic growth

Labor supply

Pension systems

Healthcare costs

could be profound.

Why Young Chinese Are Choosing Not to Have Children

Many young people in China say the government’s efforts miss the real problem.

Key reasons for declining fertility in China include:

High cost of raising children, especially in major cities

Youth unemployment and economic uncertainty

Gender inequality, with women shouldering most childcare responsibilities

Weak elder-care systems, forcing only children to support aging parents alone

A 2024 study by the YuWa Population Research Institute found China is among the most expensive countries in the world to raise a child relative to income.

“The subsidies feel like a drop in the bucket,” said Mi Ya, a Shanghai mother. “They don’t make people want to have more kids.”

From Birth Control to Pro-Natalism: A Dramatic Shift

After decades of strict population control—including fines, surveillance, forced abortions, and sterilizations—China has pivoted sharply toward pro-birth policies.

Recent measures include:

3,600 yuan ($500) annual cash bonuses for young children

Free public preschool programs

Plans to eliminate hospital delivery fees by 2026

Extended maternity leave

Streamlined marriage registration

New childcare regulations

However, the government’s move to impose taxes on contraceptives and reports of community workers contacting women about childbirth plans have raised concerns about renewed coercion.

Youth Unemployment and Marriage Decline Block Birth Growth

For many young adults, having children feels unrealistic.

“The economy is bleak,” said Zhou, a 27-year-old engineer. “If you can’t earn enough to survive, how can you dare to have kids?”

China’s marriage rate continues to fall, while divorce rates rise. Many women are choosing careers over marriage, rejecting traditional expectations that tie them to unpaid domestic labor.

“I want to live for myself,” said a 24-year-old graduate student. “Not just for the sake of having children.”

Is China’s Population Decline Reversible?

Demographers say the outlook is grim.

“The drop in birth rates is irreversible,” said Yao Yang, dean at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. Even aggressive policy support may only slow—not reverse—the decline.

To offset workforce losses, China is increasingly turning to:

Raising the retirement age

Automation and robotics

AI-driven manufacturing

These strategies may soften the economic blow but won’t restore population growth.

The Legacy of the One-Child Policy Still Shapes China

For older generations, there’s a sense of regret.

“I would have loved to have more children,” said Song Min, a 57-year-old Beijing resident. “But the one-child policy shaped how we thought about family.”

A decade after its repeal, China is still living with the consequences—demographic, economic, and social—of one of the most sweeping population control policies in modern history.